湖南电力 ›› 2026, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 129-135.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-0198.2026.04.017

• 电力人工智能与数字化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SSA-LSTM数据补全的变压器全生命周期碳排放测度模型

辛诚1, 周晓宇2, 王硕1, 施新宇2, 陈天穹1, 霍慧娟1   

  1. 1.国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京 102200;
    2.国网江苏省电力有限公司物资分公司,江苏 南京 210024
  • 收稿日期:2026-04-07 修回日期:2026-05-19 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-09-11
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网有限公司科技项目(52100125002P-186-ZN)

A Transformer Life Cycle Carbon Emission Measurement Model Based on SSA-LSTM Data Imputation

XIN Cheng1, ZHOU Xiaoyu2, WANG Shuo1, SHI Xinyu2, CHEN Tianqiong1, HUO Huijuan1   

  1. 1. State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102200, China;
    2. State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd., Material Branch, Nanjing 210024, China
  • Received:2026-04-07 Revised:2026-05-19 Online:2026-08-25 Published:2026-09-11

摘要: 为实现变压器全生命周期碳排放的精准测算与缺失数据补全,构建了相应的碳排放测度模型,并引入麻雀搜索算法(sparrow search algorithm,SSA)优化长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)模型,以解决活动水平数据缺失问题。利用典型变压器对模型进行验证,结果表明所提模型能够精准计算各环节碳排放,其中原材料阶段碳排放最高(185.81 tCOe),运行阶段次之(11.075 tCOe),退役回收可带来约45 tCOe碳减量。用以补全缺失数据的SSA-LSTM模型性能优于传统方法,其平均绝对误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.44 tCOe、0.53 tCOe和2.35%。该研究为变压器供应链全生命周期碳排放精准核算与关键环节缺失数据补全提供了方法依据。

关键词: 全生命周期评价, 碳排放精准测算, 碳排放因子法, 麻雀搜索算法, 长短期记忆网络

Abstract: To achieve accurate measurement of carbon emissions throughout the transformer life cycle and address the issue of missing data, a carbon emission measurement model is constructed. The sparrow search algorithm is introduced to optimize the long short-term memory model(SSA-LSTM) and compensate for missing data in key stages. A typical transformer is used to validate the model, and the results show that the model can accurately calculate carbon emissions across each stage. Among them, the raw material stage has the highest emissions (185.81 tCOe), followed by the operation stage (11.075 tCOe), while the retirement and recycling stage can achieve a carbon reduction of approximately 45 tCOe. The SSA-LSTM model used for imputing missing data outperforms traditional methods, achieving a mean absolute error(MAE) of 0.44 tCOe, a root mean square error(RMSE) of 0.53 tCOe, and a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) of 2.35%. This study provides a methodological basis for the accurate accounting of carbon emissions across the transformer supply chain life cycle and the imputation of missing data in key links.

Key words: life cycle assessment, accurate carbon emission measurement, carbon emission factor method, sparrow search algorithm, long short-term memory network

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