关键词: 馈线电气负荷, 空间负荷, 馈线负荷预测, 剩余负荷

Abstract: Feeder load is very important for distribution system planning, safe operation, equipment maintenance and load analysis, etc. This paper uses the spatial load forecasting method to indirectly realize electrical load forecasting, which is suitable for the load forecasting of 10 kV feeders under the situation that the purpose of spatial land is clear, the historical data of parcel load is sufficient, but the historical data of feeder electrical load is relatively lacking. According to the“component-parcel”spatial membership relationship, the micro electrical load forecasting based on the feeder segment is indirectly realized by means of the spatial parcel load forecasting, and further summarizes the medium and long-term loads of the entire 10 kV feeder line. The core idea is to first map the electrical load of the current year to the spatial load, and then obtain the spatial load of the required planning year through the spatial load prediction, and then map the spatial load of the planning year to the electrical load, and finally summarize the predicted load of the feeder. The results of the example are compared with the existing mainstream forecasting methods and the actual load collection data respectively. It shows that the proposed model and calculation method meet the accuracy requirements of distribution network planning, and it is practical and effective.

Key words: feeder electrical load, space load, feeder load forecasting, residual load